The Balochistan issue 2016

A common question doing the rounds in India is the possible manner in which reactions to the reference to Balochistan (by the Indian PM in the 15th August independence day speech) will play itself out. As everyone knows, the constant meddling by Pakistan in creating unrest in Kashmir, and the handlers of Mumbai terror attack (and many more attacks) openly operating from its soil has worsened relations between the two South Asian neighbours. 

It is very unlikely that the chain of events will immediately lead to any violent skirmishes, but there is little doubt that a process to balance out perceptions has been started by India. Let us take a look at the issue in totality now.

Here is the Indian tricolour in the hands of Baloch activists in Germany. They have seized the moment to voice their concerns worldwide.

 

We all know the strategic importance of both Balochistan as well as the CPEC passing through it and the PoK, which is an integral part of India. The debate heated up in past 5 years due to the two ports coming into limelight, and the recent trouble in Kashmir, fomented by Pakistan. The Baloch fear more oppression and resource-grabbing than earlier.

Here is the proposed China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that passes through PoK.

Source - http://nation.com.pk/blogs/01-May-2015/calling-cpec-china-punjab-economic-corridor-is-not-a-mistake 

Here is Balochistan as shown in the map by The Economist magazine

... and here is the flag of Balochistan's government in exile.

China has its own problems in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province,

... and of course, a whole crisis in the South China sea where its claims are contested by almost everyone else.

 (Image from The Economist)

And indeed, the Hong Kong democracy protests have raged for years now.

In light of all this, the impact of PM Modi’s raising this issue would be a combination of the following:

• China will be extremely careful about overtly meddling in India’s affairs unlike its behaviour in the past; it knows that it too has several skeletons the Indian government can symbolically pull out of the closet. That would be far more uncomfortable for the Chinese government which operates behind a massive firewall of restrained speech, unlike its Indian counterpart that is exposed to public and media criticism daily.
• Pakistan will have newer fires to extinguish regularly worldwide. The non-resident Baloch community will rake up this issue everywhere, and the waving of the tricolour by these ‘rebels’ will be the most in-your-face humiliation the Pak diplomacy will now have to confront. It has an impact much deeper than what bullets can create. Remember, Balochistan is around 45% of Pak’s territory - it is an existential issue for them.
• India has suddenly opened a new front in the Kashmir debate, and unlike almost all occasions in the past when it was playing the defensive game, it’s front foot this time. This ostensibly must have been done as we have little to lose, and politically it puts the entire opposition in a serious fix domestically. Though the long-term sustained approach yet needs to evolve.
• Since Pakistan’s heft in all international fora is minimal and negative as compared to India’s, the more it raises this particular issue, the more difficult things will become for it. India will definitely take them head-on everywhere on this matter at least, and the manner in which opinion in the US has turned in recent years, we have little to lose.
• The recent moves on the border by Indian defence forces (placement of Brahmos missiles and building up of military assets etc.) cannot have happened in isolation. There seems to be a concerted response the government is trying to project, perhaps something like “we’ve had enough; restrain yourself or we are ready”.
• That an actual war will break out is a far-fetched possibility. I do not think that will happen, though quick local skirmishes are much more likely.
• Similarly, the idea that India will actually carry out a raid or an armed attack to free Balochistan is too far-fetched. Like all strategic moves in international affairs, this too seems a mix of tactical thinking and strategic maneuvering. But to even remind the enemy of such a possibility can often have a chilling effect.
• Of course, there must be much more happening behind the scenes that we are blissfully unaware of.
• In the final analysis, there is no alternative to peace and cooperation for South Asia to prosper and move ahead. Animosities can take us nowhere, as India cannot be cowed down by military hardware.

So relax and enjoy the free speech India offers. Life will go on.

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