Thursday, January 26, 2017

राजतंत्र से जनतंत्र तक

भारत के 135 करोड़ नागरिकों को आज गणतंत्र दिवस के अद्भुत मौके पर हार्दिक बधाइयां!

जब अंग्रेज़ भारत छोड़ कर गए, उन्होंने वे सभी प्रयास प्रत्यक्ष व परोक्ष रूप से किये जिससे उपमहाद्वीप में सदा के लिए दरारें पड़ी रहें - भले ही हड़बड़ी में माउंटबैटन का भारत छोड़ बर्मा चले जाना (नहीं जाते तो विभाजन का नरसंहार रोका जा सकता था) या एक गैर-विशेषज्ञ द्वारा रेडक्लिफ लाइन बना कर भारत से दो टुकड़े अलग करना (पाकिस्तान और भविष्य का बांग्लादेश) या साम्प्रदायिकता के ऐसे जहरीले बीज बोना जो वक़्त के साथ फलते-फूलते। ये उनकी दिली तमन्ना थी कि भारत टुकड़े टुकड़े हो जायेगा, क्योंकि इसे एक करने वाला कोई है ही नहीं। विंस्टन चर्चिल के भारत पर जहरीले बोल किसी से छुपे नहीं हैं!

उनके मंसूबों पर भारत के नेताओं ने पानी फेर दिया - सरदार पटेल ने देश को एक सूत्र में बाँध दिया (कश्मीर से कन्याकुमारी तक), पंडित नेहरू ने एक लोकतांत्रिक चुनाव और गणतंत्र की नींव रखने में कोई कसर नहीं छोड़ी, और अन्य ने भी भरपूर योगदान दिया। अंततः 1960 आते-आते भारत में एक व्यवस्थित संवैधानिक और लोकतांत्रिक व्यवस्था ने पैर जमा ही लिए। तमाम झटकों और विरोधाभासों के बाद भी, हम बने रहे, और आज इक्कीसवी सदी की ओर आशा से देख रहे हैं।

लेकिन इस साथ दशकों की लंबी यात्रा में हमने एक बहुत गलत रुझान देखा है, जो आज ठीक न किया गया, तो लोगों का विश्वास खो देने का डर सदा बना रहेगा। और ये है - जिस गणतंत्र का भरोसा हमें दिलाया गया था, और जिससे एक सच्चा जनतंत्र अस्तित्व में आता, जहाँ आमजन पूरी आज़ादी से सशक्त हो पाता,  कब सत्ता के गलियारों में राजतंत्र में तब्दील होता चला गया, पता ही नहीं चला। नागरिक हाशिये पर चले गए, व्यवस्था प्रधान हो गयी; जनता की ज़रूरतें सरकार की नीतियों में दब कर रह गयीं; राजतंत्र ने अपनी दबंगई से गणतंत्र के कमज़ोर हिस्सों पर ऐसा वार किया कि नागरिक कानून के लिए बन गए, कानून नागरिकों के लिए नहीं!

एक आम नागरिक की दृष्टि से आज के तंत्र पर नज़र डालें तो यकीन हो जाता है कि संविधान निर्माताओं ने ऐसे भारत की कल्पना तो नहीं की होगी - स्वर्णिम तो दूर, हम अपने अधिकांश नागरिकों को एक नारकीय जीवन जीने हेतु विवश देखते हैं। ऐसे तीन साफ़ चिन्ह आप स्वयं परख लें -

पहला चिन्ह - हमारी आधी आबादी की अधिकार-विहीन स्थिति। जिस प्रकार पिछले दस वर्षों में महिलाओं का कार्यबल में प्रतिशत गिरता जा रहा है, और उनके विरुद्ध होने वाले अपराधों की प्रवृत्ति और संख्याओं में इजाफा हो रहा है, सवाल उठना स्वाभाविक है कि क्या हमारे राजतंत्र ने पूरी तरह अपराधियों और सामाजिक निष्क्रियता हेतु मैदान खुला छोड़ दिया है?

दूसरा चिन्ह - हमारी आबादी की क्षमताएं और शिक्षा द्वारा उन्हें जीवन-यापन के लिए तैयार करने की हमारी प्रतिबद्धता। सर्वेक्षण लगातार बता रहे हैं कि सरकारी स्कूलों में, जहाँ आबादी का बड़ा हिस्सा अपने बच्चों को भेजता है, वहां कैसी निराशाजनक स्थिति है और किस प्रकार से बच्चों के भविष्य के साथ अनुपस्थित शिक्षक और अधिकारी वर्ग के हज़ारों जिम्मेदार खिलवाड़ कर रहे हैं।

तीसरा चिन्ह - हमारी सामाजिक सुरक्षा प्रणाली की स्थिति - जिसमें जीवन की सुरक्षा से लेकर पौष्टिक भोजन, बीमारियों से लड़ने की ताक़त और स्वच्छ वायु भी शामिल है - बहुत कुछ कह जाती है। गरीब के लिए गरीबी उतना बड़ा अभिशाप नहीं जितना गंभीर बीमारी के चंगुल में फँसना।

हमारे संविधान की उद्देशिका कहती है कि भारत एक "संप्रभु, समाजवादी, पंथ-निरपेक्ष, लोकतान्त्रिक, गणराज्य" बनेगा। एक-एक कर देखें कि इन पांच तत्वों का एक नागरिक से क्या लेना-देना है। जब तक हम एक नागरिक पर ये परीक्षण नहीं करेंगे, तब तक कुछ नहीं पता चलेगा।

सत्ता और राजतन्त्र संप्रभु हैं, इसमें कोई शक़ नहीं, किन्तु नागरिक अपने हक़ों को लेकर संप्रभु नहीं। जिस किसी का पुलिस या कचहरी या प्रशासन से अपने माकूल हक़ पाने हेतु कभी पाला पड़ा है, वो जानता है कि दिखने वाले दांतों और खाने वाले दांतों में कितना बड़ा अंतर है! बरसों गुज़र जाते हैं, सभी मानदंड बदल जाते हैं, जीवन गुज़र जाता है, और तब कहीं न्याय की आस बंधती दिखती है।

समाजवादी हम कितने बने, ये हमारी प्रति व्यक्ति आय (2000 डॉलरों से कम, जो हमें निम्न माध्यम आय मुल्क बनाती है), से साफ़ ज़ाहिर है। हम व्यापक गरीबी हटाने हेतु लगातार नए कार्यक्रम लाते रहे, और गरीबी बढ़ती रही। एक आम जन ने यही सोचा होगा कि नेताओं से उम्मीदें बेकार हैं, तो चुनावों में जो फायदा (धन, वस्तुओं) का लिया जा सके वो ले लिया जाये। व्यापक चुनावी भ्रष्टाचार दशकों की निराशा से पनपा।

पंथ-निरपेक्षता से जुड़े विवादों का भरपूर फायदा सभी दलों ने अपने-अपने ढंग से उठाया, किन्तु मूल नैतिकता जो सभी धर्मों का आधार है, वो खो गयी। हमने जीवन के हर वर्ग में मुंडक उपनिषद् के "सत्यमेव जयते" को त्याग दिया, हालाँकि हर आधिकारिक दस्तावेज पर वो शान से विराजमान रहा।

लोकतान्त्रिक हम बने रहे, और जनता ने उन राजनेताओं को भी समय-समय पर कड़ा सबक सिखाया जिन्होंने खुलेआम वादा-खिलाफ की। किन्तु उससे कुछ मूलभूत बदला नहीं - नए रूपों में कभी उन्हीं परिवारों के, कभी रिश्तेदारों के, तो कभी चमचों के हाथों जनता की गाढ़ी कमाई का धन लुटता रहा, नेता अमीर और धनाढ्य बनते रहे और आमजन पिसता रहा। लोकतंत्र दुर्भाग्यवश एक मशीन बन गया, हर पांच वर्षों में नए चेहरे आगे लाने का, लेकिन वो जनता जो सुशिक्षित न बन पायी, उसके लिए 26 जनवरी और 15 अगस्त के असली मायने धीरे-धीरे धुंधले होते चले गए।
 
और बचा गणराज्य! हमारे शासक परिवारवादी वंशों और राजवंशों के नहीं होंगे, और वे चुने हुए जनता के असली नेता होंगे, ये थी गणतंत्र की असली भावना और उद्देश्य। आप खुद तय करें, उपरोक्त तःथ्यों के साथ, कि हमने सात दशकों में वाकई कितना सफर तय किया।

निराशा के बादल से ही आशा की किरण फूटती है। स्याह रातों के बाद ही एक सुनहरा सवेरा होता है। एक नागरिक के नाते, आप और हम बहुत कुछ कर सकते हैं जो हम कर नहीं रहे। क्या संभावनाएं हैं?

पहला - अपने नेताओं को हम अपना राजा और अपना मालिक समझना बंद करें। "सत्ता भ्रष्ट करती है और पूर्ण सत्ता पूर्ण भ्रष्ट करती है" के मन्त्र पर ही हमें अपने नेताओं को समझाना होगा कि हमारी पसीने की कमाई (हमारे चुकाए कर) के दम पर वे हमारे हितैषी नहीं बन जायेंगे - उन्हें नित नए नवाचारी और कुशल उद्यम और तरीकों से इन करों से काम लेकर दिखाना होगा। इनकी परीक्षा होनी आवश्यक है, और केवल एक जागरूक नागरिकवर्ग ही ऐसा कर पायेगा।

दूसरा - हमारे अपने स्वार्थों के लिए हर बार छोटी गलियां निकालने, और छोटे-छोटे भ्रष्टाचार के ज़रिये हिट साधने की अपनी आदतें हमें त्यागनी होंगी। हम ही उन बड़े भ्रष्टाचारों की नींव रख देते हैं, जिन घोटालों के फूटने पर हमें अचरज होता है।

तीसरा - हमारे मौलिक अधिकार अपने साथ कुछ गंभीर मौलिक कर्त्तव्य भी लाते हैं, ये हमें समझना होगा। एक हाथ से सब्सिडी लेते वक़्त हम ध्यान रखें कि व्यवस्था को ज़िम्मेदार बनाना हमारी की ज़िम्मेदारी है।

आइये, एक सच्चा गणतंत्र बनाएं, जहाँ जन ही तंत्र हों, राज उनके अधीन हो और तंत्र केवल जन हेतु हो। जय हिन्द!




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Saturday, January 21, 2017

Liberal Globalisation meets its nemesis - Welcome Mr.Trump

The wheel has come full circle



It was 1991. My country was going through a huge period of turbulence. Rajiv Gandhi had been brutally assassinated, and the leading party Congress was rudderless, when a dimunitive but extremely intelligent politician Mr P V Narsimha Rao was thrust into the limelight. All other satraps imagined he wouldn't last too long, but he did. He not only lasted five full years, he ended up transforming India.

India abolishes industrial licensing - headline in Economic Times.
India adopts the New Economic Policy - headline in Times of India.
India opens up for business - headline in Hindustan Times.

As a young man about to graduate from the IIT Delhi, I was a curious newcomer reading these newspapers with intense interest. For the first time, I was introduced to the concepts called "globalisation", "liberalisation", and "privatisation". These were projected almost as the panacea for an economy struggling with rapid population growth rates, but poor industrial output.

Prime Minister Rao thrust India into the golden period of high GDP growth rates (despite all the leaking public services) and ensured that Indian entrepreneurs (like me) got a fair chance at doing what we loved to do - building enterprises. That would have been impossible just a few years ago.

(By the way, the public services have remained leaky till date!)

It was a bright new era. Open borders. An open world. Free trade (whatever that was supposed to mean). A new WTO coming up (Jan 1995). Wow. The world will be a free place, no borders stopping capital or labour.

Today, 26 years later, while sitting with my son about to enter college, I watched Donald Trump say everything that was the direct opposite to what I experienced in 1991.

We will put America First ⇒ The end of liberal globalisation as we know it.
We will ensure that Americans get their due ⇒ The whole Chinese narrative of "free trade" whacked.
We will bring back jobs to America ⇒ The end of a free run for Indian IT companies
We will ensure others don't get enriched at our cost ⇒ Allies, beware!
We will eradicate radical Islam from the face of this Earth ⇒ Pakistan - any reply to that?
We will eradicate radical Islam from the face of this Earth ⇒ Music to a patriotic Indian's ears.
We will ensure that power goes back to the people ⇒ Ooooh, bad days ahead, Establishment.

In the most radical of ways, Mr Trump has made it clear that starting Day 1, he intends to remain true to those who voted him to power, despite the brutal ridiculing he received at the hands of the liberal mainstream media and "coastal elite". Even the media and the elite have powers that are not infinite. While he shook hands warmly with Obama, he made sure to pull the philosophical rug from under his feet almost immediately.

I could hear the globalisation engine emit a loud noise as the gears went into reverse.

Here is my take on what the coming era will hold for all of us :

  1. Bad days for Indian I.T. companies, if Trump really does what he said today. Since most Indian IT companies make their profits using cheap labour packaged into dollar-billable assets, their basic model may evaporate. Since these companies are largely into services and lack any world-beating product (say, in consumer internet segment - the market of the future), their profit story may get a rude shock. And don't even imagine what will happen to the hundreds of engineering colleges dependent on "mass campus recruitments" to stay liquid. Bad luck for IT cos. shareholders, as valuations will tumble down the hole. If they don't, it will be another mystery of this story called "globalisation". All  the effort Mr Jinping put in at Davos seemed futile today.
  2. Pakistan and China may get the hard end of the stick pretty soon. India has cried herself hoarse reminding China (touchy as they are about "One China") that our own territorial sentiments must be respected. In the most blatant, devious and insulting of ways, the Pak-China combo has rubbed salt into India's wounds. It will be very bad days for that approach, if Trump sticks to his words. And anyway, for Trump "Hindus are a great people". Thank you Mr.Trump.
  3. India's overall geo-strategic interests will get a terrific boost. We are not a major manufacturing nation anyway - at least not when compared to China. So any harm that comes to exporters to the US, will be minimal in our case (relatively). We will recover. But for those hoarding trillions of dollars and using that leverage geostrategically, time to make fun of the Commander in Chief is all but over. Good luck to them!
  4. The closeness of many Indian businessmen and leaders to Mr. Trump must be leveraged to push India's case real hard. The time is right to reclaim the Indian Ocean Region for a long, long time. The time is right to speak aloud that enough is enough, stay off us. And anyway, Mr Rex Tillerson has warned the dragon to stay off the south China sea islands.
  5. More populism across the world - Trump's remarkable campaign (for all the hatred it evoked) will be a template for many more watching him closely. The frustration of the 99% may spill over, flooding and swamping away the riches of the 1%. Anything seems possible now.


To all the liberal lobbies tearing their hair out, it is time for a cold, objective look into what prompted this amazing populist backlash.

Can technology really be allowed to take over millions of jobs?
Will people just sit and watch as elites corner all the benefits progress has to offer?
Will a condescending attitude towards the less fortunate ever sustain in the long run?
Will the narrative of a Utopian future in the presence of dystopian present ever hold?

Mr.Trump's arrival is the beginning of a whole new era of trade, finance and economics. He will not rest until he gets the job again (the next 4 years). In that light, among other things, I wonder what mighty institutions like the IIMs will do now, as the whole edifice on which their lofty existence was built is crumbling right under their feet. First it was Baba Ramdev and Acharya Balakrishna who threw all the polish and facade of modern management practice down the gutter by upstaging monolithinc rivals through brutal innovation and back-to-the-roots. And now Trump. Ha ha - unimaginable.

Welcome to the brave new world, ladies and gentlemen. Get your seatbelts along.

And stay glued to Twitter. He is about to announce something soon :)

Read a detailed analysis on "The Arrival of Donald Trump"

उपरोक्त को हिंदी में पढ़ें
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Thursday, January 12, 2017

The emerging Asian mega-struggle



History in a nut-shell


The story goes back to 1947. India had just gained independence, and power was about to be transferred in the hands of a Prime Minister who believed firmly in the sentiment of a global fraternity of nations. Another Asian giant was struggling with its own internal challenges. Recovering from the Japanese attack, the Chinese Kuomintang Party – under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek – was struggling with the domestic Communists. America and other nations had been supporting Kuomintang and the Communists were not expected to usurp power. But surprisingly, in 1949, power came into the hands of Mao Tse-tung and he founded the People's Republic of China (PRC). The Kuomintang Party leaders fled to Taiwan. The same Taiwan, the recent tweets on which by Donald Trump has enraged the Chinese government for violating the “one China” policy.
 
Pandit Nehru’s philosophy was that of peaceful co-existence, but in only one decade all his dreams stood shattered when the Chinese communists not only annexed entire Tibet, but also engaged in a bloody military confrontation with India. Tibet, which with its 12.25 lac sq. k.m. geographical area, had been a safe “buffer zone” between India and China for centuries, suddenly came under Chinese ownership. The PLA immediately started building military assets there. Its impact is seen today in India’s military strategies, where we are forced to deploy our state-of –the-art weapons and military assets to combat the visible threats coming over from Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh.

Today, it's different


The conditions today are such that China directly criticises India for Dalai Lama’s activities in India and the Indian government responds with clarifications. China has not only acted in this fashion with India, but China has done the same with Mongolia and the US in the recent past – only the US responded tersely saying that criticism was not acceptable. If we see the entire overall strategy of China, it would be clear that there is only one direct, clear and current challenge for India, which  has both the capability and intention of harming Indian interests, and that is China. Pakistan does not have the capability to threaten India at all, if it does not enjoy the blatant support of the Chinese.


www.SandeepManudhane.org, http://brightsparks.PTeducation.com

Let us first look at the big differences between India and China –


First difference – No government in India frames a long term policy (strategic, industrial, or any other) which can last the next ten to fifteen years, whereas China is not only directly framing policies for the next twenty or thirty years, but also implementing them. It can be said that our democracy and elections every five years, have given us this huge “relative strategic loss”.

Second difference – Since China practically does not have the concept of Fundamental Rights, or the supremacy of any Constitution, and also no Supreme Court which can stop or prevent the government, hence, only a single-party government makes the economic and military  capability of the country at its will, and speedily implements it. In India, where the policy of “take it easy”  looms large all across, this type of speed can look like a day-dream. 

Third difference – Ever since 1980, under the leadership of Deng Xioping, China had realized that no strategic victory was possible without economic advancement, and hence it wholeheartedly devoted itself to manufacturing and scientific research. The situation today is such that this becomes the main issue in the US presidential elections.

Fourth difference – The Chinese state, working in only a single direction, with only a single aim and target, strives to eliminate every possible strategic problem either by virtue of resources or by the use of force. Huge foreign exchange reserves and massive economic power give it this immediate advantage.

Fifth difference – China wants a complete dominance on entire Asia. China has openly opposed and abused India’s every interest in the past decade. It is indicative of the fact that China wants to create the a 21st century of its own, with no intention of sharing it with India.

All these indications are now transforming into ground realities, and they are happening in our own land! China has speedily made its CPEC in the Illegally occupied PoK in the past two years and thereby prepared for its entry in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Possibly this would be its ultimate objective – to reduce India’s dominance in the most strategic IOR. All nations, which have so far been close to India are being supplied military equipments, like submarines (Bangladesh). Pakistan’s courage and 'power' has increased manifold, despite the Baloch rebels raising a hue and cry. The Babur missile test conducted by Pakistan in 2017 should be viewed in this light.

Now the issue is no longer limited to Pakistan. In the battle of supremacy on entire Asia, China is continuously investing which can seriously impact India’s interests. By showing huge procurement favours to an economically troubled Russia and convincing the Taliban for accepting a mid-way, China is creating new equations the ultimate results of which would possibly be not understood by anyone.

An Action Plan


So, what should India do? We can focus on five things –


First – We should try to make a common front with all possible allies. The military and strategic close relationship with Vietnam and Japan is being developed with this view.

Second – Our intrinsic strengths – our education system, scientific research capability and economy – should be strengthened if we are to remain steadfast against such forces for the next fifty years.

Third – The political system and democracy we take pride in, and which has slowed us against the Chinese communists, has to be completely cleansed – i.e. revolutionary electoral reforms.

Fourth – Speak in unison – when the issue relates to national interest, mutual bitterness and confrontations would not be helpful, and that too against an opponent like China. Our unity will always remain our strength.

Fifth – Preparedness for the future – It is quite possible that the Chinese government’s current model (no democratic elections) may struggle some day in the wake of despotism and finally collapse. And then there will be a likelihood of a change in China’s strategic approach.

The speed with which the 21st century is showing new forms, India should not hesitate to do everything possible to protect its interests and the prosperity of its citizens by national consensus.



www.BodhiBooster.com, http://www.SandeepManudhane.org, www.PTeducation.com

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