Sunday, November 22, 2009

Crystal ball gazing

If you are not a declared astrologer, then making predictions is dangerous business. If you are one, however, then you can always save your skin by blaming the stars, and of course take credit otherwise. I am not an astrologer, and I still like making predictions.
My predictions are based on my experience, and regular study of the world around. One can, with due practice, decipher patterns and trends that are visible. Variables seem to link up in some predictable ways. And outcomes seem inevitable.


So, here goes!
  1. Barack Obama will grow weak over the next one year. His approval ratings will dip regularly. The dissenting Republican (and Democrats') voices will grow shriller. The structural weakness of the American economy will reflect ever more in his overt gestures of accommodation towards other States, of course, including China. The US economy will show artifical signals of recovering, but fundamentally will slide further down the slippery road of humongous deficits and no concrete plans to plug the gap. If anything goes wrong bigtime, it could be the beginning of the end for his Presidency as well.
  2. China will increasingly grow suspicious of India, and issue dangerously provocative statements every few weeks. The basically robust domestic demand, and Indian politicians' rather strong stand on Arunachal and Pakistan will harden China's outlook on India. Its support to Pakistan will continuously grow, and its entanglement in Nepal and its extremists will grow too. The open-ended support in South Asia's strategic matters offered by US will enbolden China to issue reckless statements. The imminent change of leadership in China will further make it nervous of everything in the world even remotely sounding 'anti-Chinese' and will provoke wild official reactions. The Dalai Lama is headed for seriously troubled times ahead.
  3. Indian industrial growth will remain underoptimised. Due to lack of creation of hard assets fast enough, we will miss out on asset creation possibilities badly. Our slow bureaucratic machinery will kill several percentage points of growth otherwise possible. Remember Ultra Mega Power Plants? 3G auctions? Grand highway projects? Nothing is moving for months. Do we have that kind of time? When our bureaucrats should be working overtime ensuring all possible clearances for big projects, they are busy doing god knows what.
  4. The poor rate of asset creation will badly impact the Indian job market. New jobs will not get created fast enough, as companies will discover ways of generating profits without generating too many new jobs. Many have already discovered costs they were blind to earlier. So, the spectacular episode of solid profit growth without accompanying job-growth will continue over the next one year at least in corporate India. Corporates will use two basic tools - cut process costs mercilessly (without firing too many existing people, although), and Multitask HR. Expect a lot of rationalisation of attitude in the corporate world, as the flab accumulated during the boom years (2003-2007) gets slashed and trim sets in.
  5. Israel will do something really stupid with either Hamas/Fatah or with Iran. It will launch another bloody attack on their colonies, or on Iran's nuclear installations. Either way, it will spark a series of wildly unpredictable affairs. America is growing weaker by the day, and the Israeli Prime Minister has (surprisingly for everyone) shown camouflaged disregard for President Obama's strong advice regarding 'respect' for settling the Palestine issue by creating two states permanently. The wildly popular Cairo speech of Obama has not been backed by ground level action by the US administration, and a great opportunity has been almost lost.
  6. Indian government will launch, and then dither, and then withdraw an offensive against the Naxalites covering 223 districts of the nation. The stupid parochialism of politicians of the affected states will tie down the Home Minister's hands by the incessesant demands for more state level automony in handling the crisis (which they have mishandled for decades now). This fracas will demoralise the paramilitaray and police forces, and we can expect some strong statements from those quarters as well. A beginning has been made by a senior serving Air Force official recently (although in a different context).
  7. There will be no conviction of any corporate honcho in the Global Crisis related scam. The US prosecutors will try their level best to nail culprits responsible for the breakdown of the securitisation markets and the consequent collapse of much of world economic momentum, but will fail in doing so, because of inherent complexity in the way responsibilites are defined in such markets. This will seriously dampen American public's faith in the 'purity' of capitalism (given their penchant for fairness and equity, and their sense of justice).
  8. Food prices inflation in India will continue for some time. There is no respite in sight in the immediate future. It is painful to see no coordinated action on this front.
  9. The HRD ministry in India can see a sudden change of fortunes. The rapid push to gung-ho privatisation (in a backdrop of gloomy world affairs) can backfire, if any serious and important politician takes issue with it. Very interestingly, the Minister has had a free run so far. India does not seem ready yet - at a social level - to digest massive changes to the fundamental fabric of the education "market", and the proposed legistations could spark not just debate, but a lot more!
  10. Copenhagen will be a dud. Except the mandatory formal statement, nothing will come out of it. Another great opportunity lost. Expect nothing for the next 2-3 years at least. The economic cost is just too much for the developed nations to digest, and in the backdrop of a recovering global economy, China will not take chances with stipulations that bind it in any manner whatsoever.
Well, that's about it. Now I wait and watch, and pray to God almighty that some of these never happen.
~

13 comments:

Akshay Kothari said...

Respected Sir,

Thanks for giving us valuable predictions which may seriously affect the world in coming future.
Though world now is the complete game of mysteries,which day what new happens no one knows.
After reading your predictions i was thinking where Stock markets will go?? Its great fun predicting Stock markets!Actually wealth wipes out here very fast.
And best thing is that predicting stock markets is also not too risky,if predictions go wrong people say-"KYA PATA KAUN CHALA RAHA HAI"
Any Guess???
Thanks
Proton Akshay
Fall09

always first said...

In a single line we can say that-
Raat ke Baad Hi to savera Hota hai.
-
Nandan agrawal

Sandeep Manudhane said...

Akshay, Nandan - thanks for reading and commenting.

As for the SENSEX - I can safely predict that it will go up. Only in extreme conditions, which may happen, will it go down. Either way, one must keep their eyes open, and watch the situation closely. So these are the only two possibilities.

(ha ha, got you!)

shailendra said...

Respected Sir,
As you mentioned ten predictions in your blog and those are having highest probability of occurrence. Keys of power will moving toward South Asia as well as India continuously find him in very distress state. One more thing which is continuously squeeze me that you didn't mention about year 2012. Sir please give as some insights regarding 2012.Is it true that our world will suffer from natural calamities and tantamount of this, we will lose our identity and move towards ice age.

Thank you
Shailendra
09 Spring

Saurabh Soni said...

My prediction - Astrology will be a very big role in the coming decade along with necessary tactic of working hard & smart..People will study astrology as a source to take caution & also as a source to explore opportunities !! We are up for very volatile, dynamic & interesting time..Till what time will this last is the question??

khushnud said...

Dear Sir,
I appreciate your premonitory style of writing as far as world politics is concerned. I absolutely agree with your point of view in context to making predictions.
It’s high time that all the issues discussed so far be addressed intensely by our great world leaders, keeping aside their vested interests. The world is changing with a fast pace and in order to catch up with the changing circumstances decisions pertaining to well being of the whole world need to be devised. The world leaders must stop shooting arrows in the dark.
Well I can’t predict anything about the world as we all have stepped onto the path leading to massive disaster but I can only hope that through our united efforts we all can make this world somewhat better place to live in. The only thing required is to bring a little change in our thoughts. As the saying goes, “ You are either the captive or the captain of your thoughts”.

Positive thoughts brings positive change.

Regards
khushnud

himanshu said...

Hi Sandeep,

1) The general sentiment here in the US is when you have a President who does not have any experience as a governer they struggle, as Obama is now realising campigning and governing are very different. Having said that if the healthcare passes and the unemployment is controlled he would come out stronger. This country has a very powerful right side Obama's future would be decided by how they consolidate themselves and how he deals with them.
2) The dilema countries globally have is how to deal with India, India in the past several years have not shown the ability to move forward in critical issues like infrastucture development China has however these global crisis showed the world that, the economic model of India which drives its strength from its domestic market and sound fiscal structure is better, this puts China in a combativer mode aganist India as China sees India as a potential threat to its dominance in Asia and Globally, countries globally have to be cautious because a lot of these economies depend on China, so China would do this in some cases would score diplomatic win over India but next 5-10 years things would be very different if India successfully implements its economic, health and people development programs.
3) Points 3&4 are linked in broader terms our Industrial growth would depend on how committed we are to becoming the global power we so riching deserve with out getting trapped in fighting over Liberhan commission, Raj Thackerey Madhui Khoda etc..... people who arte committed to growth and success like yourself would be successful and in your own right these people would drivr the economy by creating assests, jobs.
5) Israel would bomb Iranian nuclear sites if the current regime continues it would done as a trade off for Israel coming to the discussion table for talks with Palestine authority giving up previously held hardline positions and this would happen with US blessing. The healthcare bill would be passed US would annouce withdrawl of troops in a time line from Afganistan, and they would annouce peace treaty between Israel and Palestine hoping this would reduce the heat/hatred globally in the Islamic world on US, as collateral damage Iram would get wacked, the only problem I see in this is China and Russia, the reason Obama was so soft on China in this trip was as they would need China's backing in doing this.
6) I believe there would no misadventue like IPKF aganist maoist like the americans we would buy our way out of this problem, you take away the cause for the problem buy your way into resolution of problem. Congress is very good at doing this, there would a lot of bloodshed and scarifices but I believe this is the way they would find solution for this problem.
With Best Regards
Himanshu

Sandeep Manudhane said...

Shailendra - commenting on 2012 is not in my ken. Maybe one of our readers will help the rest of us!

Saurabh - thanks for reading and commenting!

Khushnud - thanks for reading and commenting!

Himanshu - phew! That was solid. Really solid. It will be a pleasure inviting you on campus for a talk.

Bhupendra said...

2)Now India might get divided on linguistic line ..it is showing signs of language chauvinism...regional rivalries..
are showing early signs..population, inflating food prices(that is really sad),might be a fuel to it..
a lot of hungry and destitute people certainly.. goes to revolution.... I hope Churchill's ghost doesn't haunt us
and Iqbal's sher remains valid till eternity...“kuchh baat hai ki hasti mitati nahi hamari sadiyon raha hai dushman daur-e-jama hamara”

And for 2012 .. end of the world part... let me add some thing..

Mayan were actually good at calculating solar cycles and there calendar was pretty good.
But problem starts with the end of it :
Calendar ends at 21/12/2012 .. reasons may be any....
1)may be the calendar writer was serious that something bad was happening and no point in righting further
2)he was a jerk..
3)he forget..
4)he was fired...
5)His manager want him to work till late hrs so he resigned..
6)he got a girl friend..
7)he got pissed off from the fact that he was writing about an age he is not going to see..
8)he thought i will continue tommrw but... before he can continue further ..something struck
and whole civilisation wiped out
9)he died and they didnt have his replacement ..
10)There calendar printing company got bankrupt. It was the last copy which our archeologist got hold off (pretty lucky or unlucky)

So there are endless possibilities of why there calendar ended at 21/12/2012.
But i guess more romantic is the one which says... world will end.astronomical
authorities has rubished these claims :http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-guest.html

And for the movie 2012 .. a thumbs down.... roland emmerich has got an itch to destroy the
world ...and mayan gave food for his so called "script" .i only liked two things in the movie
1) Spectacular Destruction Scences
2) It was an indian who found out.. earth was heating up.
(Bad thing americans deceive him didnt saved him and his family from dying in diaster)

Bhupendra

Bhupendra said...

Well Well Well That is quite a prognostication....happening here
A few i would say hunches i happen to have .. no theories.. just hunches...
1) Im not a spirutal guy but..
If there will be Kalki avatar of Vishnu..if it is going to happen..and if the other nine really did happened..then
Kalki would be a Robot..(how abt that..) yes... (im serious..)...
if we look at text it says..
"riding a white horse with wings known as Devadatta brandishing a sword in his right hand and is
intent on eradicating the corrupt destitution and debauchery of Kali Yuga"
Now look which god will ride a horse(even a winged one) at an age much advance then today.. that is simply
out-of-fashion...thats..anachronism ..even terminators(T-800)(for eradicating the corrupt destitution and debauchery of Kali Yuga part) had a dressing sense.....he made statements with his apparels and was choosy..
look at ramayan and mahabharata .. both were quite fashionable...
For the sword part star wars provided enough of sword manifestation...
For Horse part we have a very advance bike which can fly...(Movie Island)
When they say right hand..because.. "right" is symbolic for good,virtuous.. against left which is evil,bad
I believe in future time there will be lot of advancement in both AI and Robotics...there will be a time when machine will be like humans or more humane in certain cases.. and there some time in dark age.. when sun will start dieing out..there a machine will be manufactured .. or born (for human part of it) which will be "kalki".Also this avatar will be affected by globalisation.... probably sambhal village might have been misinterpreted..
japanese are currently at forefront of robotics..so my bet ... it will be japan..
wake up indians .. till now we had monopoly in having all avatars from india..let us claim the last one too..:)
my primary source of this thought are : Chapter in hindi i read during ..i guess 6 or 7th class "Kalarav kunjit kalyug" there they meant by "machines" as "kal"
and second IRobot Movie.

Sandeep Manudhane said...

Bhupendra - nice to see a full blgopost inside the comments page of my blog. Ha ha ha Good to read your stuff. Keep it coming

swati said...

Sir ,

You say that you are no astrologer , but your writing invokes the same emotions as the predictions and gaze of an astrologer .Every word carries a lot of weight and depth in it . I can feel the chill down my spine. I completely accede to what you have predicted , but i hope and wish that somethings like economy recovers sooner than you have predicted .

Regards
Swati Sharma

Vijay Kumar Jain said...

True... Kalki avatar of Vishnu shall be a lethal combination of man god and Chanakya (the most able administrator in the history of mankind)! Advent of Kalki Avatar is expected around 2012~2014