Thursday, November 10, 2011

A Chinese Arab spring?

A question that's popped in many minds since the Arab spring started dislodging long entrenched regimes in the Arab world is - Will China go the same way?

I did a social media brainstorming.. here are the results! Very good insights spanning the whole spectrum. (insights not edited)

The Question

Almost all the Arab world dictators have fallen in past 10 months. In Dec 2010, no one had seen it coming! Do you think the same can repeat in China one day? If yes, when?

Piyush Joshi
why will this happen in China?

Kunwar Gyan Singh Pawar sir ji china ka to pata nahi, but India me 2013 me jarur hoga

Aditya Jain The day China enters in a war with India. All the attention of armed forces and intelligence agencies of China will be on India and that will be the end of China's communism.

Deepesh Baghela Definitely yes...when growth of China will be slowed down & People of China will focus on Democracy

Nitesh Arya not in this decade..

Abhishek Sharma It is said that Chinese communists have grown old and they fear to hand power to younger china, well lets hope for the collapse of old and stiff Communist rule in China.

Adhiraj Dare The day when someone grows stronger than China.. US certainly cant afford to do this to its biggest lender.. Cant see happening this in the next 20 years or so..

Umesh Mali all the chinese people lives in out china back to china and face as usual old policy of china , I think that day change in china,, Actually process aginst chinese people against sys start but, china govt don't explore any thing in world wide mida,, it's verry near future same prob face rashiya also,,,

Himanshu Khandelwal This will happen anytime from now, the thing which trigger this will be the cultural globalization which has already started. As more n more people from china come across the liberty enjoyed by people of other demography, they will start demanding the same for them n then starts the great collapse of Chinese communal ism. My prediction is towards the end of this decade may be around 2017-18.

Amit Maheshwari well it can happen but the speed with which and the way they are doing may be it ll not happen in china.....

Claire Mansha Swami it might be a most wanted Fall to come up!!!!!

Saurabh Jaiswal I think the china will re-engineer the concept of communism and yet retain its soul.

Bharat Jhalani One of the main reasons behind Arab spring was the inflation in essential commodities tripled with the slowing growth and rising unemployment (as they say..empty mind is the devil's workshop)... Interestingly China has started facing some of the same problems (High inflation, tightening monetary policy and slowing growth).But unemployment is not a pressing problem in China yet (its just 6.5% as compared to 12% in Egypt). A lot depends on the the way Euro crisis shapes up. If Greece falls, it will have a domino's effect on rest of the Euro zone especially in Italy,Spain & Portugal.. And the repercussions will definitely be felt at China. Communist Party must divert some part of its huge $3.2 trillion reserves to Euro zone if it needs to rule it own backyard 'Peacefully'!!

Shivalik Daga Even if the Chinese 'dictatorship' crumbles I doubt it will result in the sort of economic logjam like it did for the USSR..the Chinese are already reaping the benefits of a market economy and they already have a lot of capitalist institutions in place. But one major impact I can think of if the communists lose power is that China's population would definitely grow faster in the small to medium term as the OCP is repealed : Imagine generations of Chinese people have grown up without knowing what it means to have a sibling!

Mukesh Muwal It is comparatively very easy to protest against one person or a few people than to topple an empire of 7.5 crore people. Anyways, Chinese people doesn't have much reasons (b'coz they are employed) and sources too, to recognize the real face of govt. and above all, only extremely committed and uneducated people protest for a cause, I think china lacks both. Fall of Chinese communist party is not possible this way but it can happen if people within the party protest against it.

Navin Kaushal I guess it will take a long time this to happen in China as their government is taking all the necessary steps to provide employment to their people hence frustration level among the people would be lesser. Also many Chinese people have the fear and memories of Tiananmen Square Massacre

Mohammad Malik May not happen very soon.. Whatever happen in the recent past is just a part of larger world politics, then the actual people led revolutions. The commanility of kingdoms have been Oil, non alignment with US, and ambition or rather purchasing power of arsenals other than US made.. The Coupe has been mostly instigated by US and company. Infaltion, and unemployement have been the catalysers, offcourse. China on the other hand is an Oil deficit growing economy. Any urest will be non healthy for huge US investments. Its all about controlling the stearing, rather than lifting the car on the shoulder and move.. :)

Virendra Phr only Hosni Mubarak and Gaddafi have fallen .Arab world is pretty complicated as I experienced it ...there are many rulers who dont have dictatorial designations but still rule the country on the same lines.....

Nilesh Dani Never....

Ayush Rathore maybe

Anup Mittal it will take time...........

Kshitiz Bhutani i think sir this thing will take years to happen in there administration and political decisions regarding development issues within china are very strong and committed one's....its not like that they had not provided autonomy they had done it in few areas....but ignoring defence powers there ! China seemed to have an different outlook then that of arab crisis....they equally think about there people its not like that the people of china are not aware what is happening arround the world, what we saw on news channels and interprered version china is this , china is that might we are only faccilitated with those facets only bcoz media we trust upon operates from europian countries then how would european super powers could make highlight those aspects which are chineese feeling oriented.....i just mean to say we should consider both faces...! If something unusaul happens there they will sought out themselves weather by hook or crook those things will never exposed in a bigger way as that of arabs , chinese have that much of strength that they could easily crack this nut.....we should also remember no NATO....will interfare in b/w issue of china , they are also a super power every nation will think twice before making such decision ! Its dragon

Arijit Chakraborty Iran is in que...

Neeraj Tiwari i think sir it took lot time them to be there at

Ketan Bapat as soon as the younger generation become elite and free from mean mentaliies...........

Herwig Streubel If it is going to happen too soon it will be very bloody! But it will happen. Hopefull a sort of Chinese Gorbatshev will rise before that happens.

Sandeep Manudhane All empires collapse, eventually

Tumuluri Rammohan ‎"You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain"

Sonam Jain when people will fead up of this dictator ship this will repeat in china also

Rizwan Khan some one china dictator needed in India, who at least people work and not waste time on facebook like me.

Gautam Kumar CHINA CHINA CHINA....ab aur nahin...In China the new generation that is coming up has not seen the adversity of the olden days. The orderly succession that is managed till now will be a problem in future coz the discipline of communist part has gone. Today smarter, younger ones don't want to sell ideology they want to sell coca-cola. China getting deprived of ideology...its dependency for raw mat on other nations increasing...domestic consumption doesn't seem to rise...not in near future but eventually it will of know world seems to be without leader.

A good brainstorming this was!


1 comment:

Prachi Pandey said...

Dear Sir,
Greetings to you!
Once I read a book and I came across a statement in the prologue- "Every nation has it's destiny". So somewhere I feel China's preordained fall would come soon. I also believe that the gunpowder is ready and it just needs a spark and there will be an explosion just like in the case of Jasmine Revolution.