Thursday, June 10, 2010

Obama solves Palestine problem, to move it to outer space

I wrote this article in a moment of agony, reading about the repeated Israeli attacks on innocent (?) Palestinians, and the utterly confused American stand on the whole peace issue that's going nowhere. The article presents a comical solution to the embroglio, and hopefully will force the reader to consider the sheer lunacy of the actual situation. The article also got published on a popular fun news site www.fakingnews.com Enjoy!
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Obama solves Palestine problem, to move it to outer space

Washington, DC, USA. In a surprising development late last evening, President Barack Obama (of the USA in North America), emerged from a 22 hours marathon meeting with representatives of NASA, CIA, FBI, Mossad, CBI, the BSP, Al Qaeda and the states of Israel and Palestine, to make a landmark announcement. He sounded optimistic, although desultory and shaky due to sheer fatigue despite consuming 43 cups of Starbucks discounted coffee with Dunkin diabetic donuts, while releasing his official press note.



Surrounded by all these representatives all of whom were equally shaky out of sheer fatigue, he said, and we quote. “The USA has realized that the tremendous efforts, time and resources invested over past 3 decades into solving the shitty Israel-Palestine problem have turned to precisely that – shit. There is more and more of that being generated with every passing week. Even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s efforts to clean up the mess are leaving more of it (blush). Hence, in a multinational operation of unprecedented magnitude, all parties involved have decided to agree to a project in which the entire physical state of Palestine will be moved to the outer space, 33 kilometers above the surface of the Earth. This way, the problem will be solved forever.”

To the tumultuous cheer of the media persons present in the briefing room, the President continued, “We have also realized that the Israelis actually enjoy attacking, maiming, handicapping and killing the Palestinians. It goes beyond their call of state-duty. It is a form of national sports, and is used for daily mock training of their regular troops. Since this cannot be changed we decided to change the target itself. Now the entire state of Palestine, including the disputed settlements in the West Bank (and the Gaza strip) will be dug out till a depth of 500 m into neatly packaged chunks (with humans inside) using giant Caterpillar machines (for which contracts need to be taken out) and will be transported to outer space using giant tows tied to Saturn 22 rocket series (for which contracts need to be taken out). All these chunks will then be neatly assembled by the leading engineers from Toyota’s famous assembling units (that manufactured those brake-pedal assemblies that have led to worldwide recalls) and in a short span of just 29 years, the project should see completion.”

Upon media queries on what will happen to the people tied inside these chunks, the President replied, “They will be supplied enough food, water and sanitation facilities to last at least three decades. They can continue to enjoy their safe lives (better than what they would be back on ground anyway) and continue to reproduce inside. As soon as the assembling would be complete, they can emerge to a victorious settlement of their new found homeland. What Gods could not do, we will have done.”

To a question on possible Republican vetoing of the project later, the President accepted that it represented a tricky matter and that if the Republicans were to come to power anytime in the next 3 decades, they could reverse his administration’s call, and then the fate of the Palestinians out there would literally be hanging in the air. He offered no solution to that future emergency, denouncing critics as naysayers, and advising them to believe in the power of “we can”.

His address was transmitted live to the entire world, with an estimated 1899 TV channels beaming it live, and 11 billion humans watching it to their pleasant surprise, including some from the forlorn and forgotten islands in Micronesia, who could not hide their tears of joy. Out of sheer joy, thousands of Palestinians fired several rounds of AK-47 shots into the Israeli territory, killing hundreds of civilians who could not hold their tears of joy on this stunning development. The Israelis too returned fire out of sheer joy, and maimed an equal number of Palestinians.

[submitted by International News Correspondent Inane Stupidities Amplified (I S Amplified)]
~

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

What lies ahead for Capitalism - a worldview


Capitalism was supposed to be the final stage in the evolution of the economic man. Every pundit worth his modern salt, every professor worth his Harvard pedigree, every intellectual worth his Kenyesian learnings and every policy-maker worth his neo-liberal leanings convinced us through the past 30 years that the only way forward for humanity was to let the energies of individuals be liberated, through the fantastic system we call Capitalism. And to top it all, like the wonderful brown cream my cafe guy tops my cappuccino with (how I love it!), we had the US with its mighty army, navy, airforce and eyes-in-the-heaven to reassure all who wanted to take solace in capitalism's arms. With its fancy brands that conquered the world markets and painted the urban youth everywhere (including India) with one single uniform colour of an amazingly sick and conformist modern culture (what an irony!), global capitalism was here to stay forever.

To douse the fires of skepticism that raged at times, Adam Smith was recalled from his grave, and his 'invisible hand' waved so vigorously it must have pained like hell. We were told that entrepreneurs' 'animal spirits' were the key drivers of all significant progress mankind had ever made - from the first hairy guy who must have discovered that fire can indeed be tamed (how relieved that guy (and the girl he might have eloped with into the forest) must have been!) to the first child who must have discovered the joy of rolling a wheel (I am sure his mother would have beaten him for venturing too deep into the forest doing that!).

And when the likes of Marx interjected with their amazing works like Das Kapital (nothing to do with any Mr Das from Bengal although it always makes me smile to think so!) and pointedly remarked that all this hullabaloo about capitalism was actually inane and insane, they were brushed aside by our pundits saying that the creations of Marxism (namely USSR and China) have anyway collapsed and turned to capitalism itself. As for their glory days, conspiracy theories abounded about how the grand Soviet ventures of connecting rivers had massively failed and turned promises of fertility into oceans of barren lands. We were told by the glossy western magazines how the serpentine queues for bread in Soviet-era were a living testimony to the inherent failure of the concept of communism (and socialism).

Being an (Indian) entrepreneur myself, I totally believe in the virtues of Capitalism, its freedom and its promise of prosperity. In a moderately conservative society, I have lived this promise for 17 good years now, every single moment. And I believe every individual driven by a positive attitude can do good for himself/herself in any such society. So on the whole, an open entrepreneurial culture is fairly rewarding. 

This philosophy of Capitalism is indeed lucrative, and that's why it has survived through centuries, across geographies. But swayed by the seemingly unfailing ways of its captains, the US went beyond what the limits should be. Capitalism turned into Extreme Capitalism.

So, what are the founding principles of Capitalism, after all? Let's see. 

Capitalism (the good one) is all about -
  1. A firm belief in the inherent goodness of man (for his society), when he is allowed to pursue his personal enterprise and profits
  2. An 'invisible hand' that works for society's benefit (through employment generation etc.) even as the entrepreneur pursues his personal adventures
  3. The greatness and goodness of productivity enhancement, which is possible only through personal profit motives, and not social ones
  4. Leveraging the 'animal spirits' of human beings; the energy of reaching out to the stars; the madness and passion of undertaking ventures which seem impossible
  5. A near-perfect system of capital distribution to resources in society so that only who deserve it, get it, and those who don't are marginalised (deserve is in the sense of efforts they are willing to put in)
  6. Profits, profits, profits; and not as a dirty word, but as a reward for vision and toil of individuals
Presto! Every single one of these tenets has been kicked in the groin by the grand daddies of them all - the US bankers. As I wrote, they turned Capitalism into Extreme Capitalism. Adam Smith never advocated throwing caution to the winds. But these educated, well-dressed, well-heeled gentlemen from the Wall Street turned everything upside down. How? Read on, to discover how those whom everyone trusted with their monies, and capitalism itself, cheated everyone (including themselves!). The key follies of these captains were -
  1. They did not believe in any inherent goodness of man; they just pursued the economic goodness (to take a taste of this, just talk to the so-called PE funds .. their salivating mouths upon sensing a project that has promises of obscene economic returns (at whatever human and moral cost) will tell the whole story).
  2. Forget the invisible hand. Their visible hand was used to channelise maximum salaries and perks for themselves. Horror stories abound, even in Western media.
  3. Sitting in a banker's cabin, productivity enhancement of industry is the last thing on their minds. All they are concerned about is how to multiply their capital (and returns) by any means - genuine physical productivity enhancement or artificial ones.
  4. 'Animal spirits' indeed! They leveraged it to the fullest. Unfortunately, they leveraged their own, and not those whom they were supposed to fund and excite, so more real-world productivity could happen.
  5. Distribution of capital was totally flawed. Only a few banks (and bankers) had access to trillions of dollars, and this happened through years of what these criminals call 'industry consolidation' (another name for killing competition. Ironical, isn't it?)
  6. Profits, for sure! For themselves, and the next 100 generations of theirs.
But capitalism's mother nature has her ways of settling the scores of those who think they are just too intelligent for everyone else.
The entire edifice of leveraging that these US bankers built, fell upon itself. This is called "implosion". Nowhere in history will you find an example more apt than this of an implosion. The banks just collapsed. They kept lending (for buying homes) to idiots (who could never have repaid) as the bank-salesmen had their incentives tied to the number of loans they could issue (and in the rah-rah boom years, all that looked so real, so do-able, so correct!), the bankers kept making money out of their quarterly profits and bonuses, and the Federal Reserve just sat tight with its eyes shut, ensuring adequate money flowed through the banking system. And to soothe the naysayers, AIG was roped in to put its seal of insurance on everything that remotely looked suspicious (AIG executives later revealed that they had no idea what documents they were signing.. it was like printing revenues!).

So Extreme Capitalism took its toll. The key crimes of the regulators - the US government and Federal Reserve - through the past 15 years were -
  • Being a silent observer of every conceivable excess, including leverage ratios like 1:33
  • Allowing money to flood the system through easy (loose) monetary policies of the Fed (assuming that more money into the system will help boost consumer credit, which will boost consumer demand, which will boost everything else)
  • Borrowing like mad from China (and some more nations)
  • Allowing absolutely dangerous deregulation to take place (depository banks allowed to indulge in investment banking activities) under the amazingly stupid notion that "risks have been tamed in markets for the foreseeable future, through the rigorous statistical quantitative tools used by modern risk managers!" (the failure of LTCM was forgotten all too easily)
  • Quietly allowing government officials and top corporate honchos to look like mirror images of each other (the man who was part of the gang responsible for creating the credit crisis in US (Henry Paulson, head of Goldman Sachs) was made the Treasury Secretary of federal govt.!)
  • Maintaining a huge military presence around the world to artificially keep faith in the US dollar as the ultimate reserve currency intact (in people's minds around the world.. though many spoke their hearts out against the USD's domination of the world currency system and demanding a mixed basket of currencies instead)
  • The biggest folly - despite being the land of capitalism's origin and genuine nurturing, silently allowing the system to corrode, become hostage to glib MBAs from Ivy-league institutions, and to spread the risk around the world by the fantastic tool called globalisation (so the villagers in Norway too went bankrupt when the beautifully created and fully-insured US CDOs collapsed!)
All this nonsense of the Wall street spilled onto the Main street. The pain has been felt the world over. Entire industries have suffered. Innocent workers have lost livelihoods. Young graduates are struggling to get jobs, as companies have suddenly tightened their belts, fearing the vagaries of the future. All this pain, just because the big daddies of Wall Street could not rein in their blind hunger for more.

Thankfully, the Indian government and the RBI did not heed aggressive requests from the West to open the entire Indian banking sector, and to follow policies like they did in the West. If we had done that, India would have faced a civil war now (with the banking sector gone bust, and the government in no position to offer king-size bailouts like the US govt.). I suspect, with a smile, that the RBI knew all along what was coming their (the US's) way! As a colleague beautifully said - "If you know, then ignorance is bliss!"

Today, with the European crisis looming large, big questions abound. Where is all this heading to? Some simple answers are apparent -
  • The US economic recovery will take at least 5 to 8 years. It will not happen in a hurry at all.
  • The de-leveraging of the consumer households in the US (as they pay down their debts) will create further pains in the economy. Austerity drives will do so, too.
  • Lots of loan defaults in US will happen (although, in all fairness, majority of the borrowers still pay in time)
  • Europe will remain troubled for a long time. Big nations like Germany will not succumb easily to the cries of the vultures to help unconditionally. And that's fair enough.
  • Large scale arson and rioting may lead to world-leaders sitting at the table and simply "resetting" debt terms amongst each other. That would be a ludicrous but effective way to handle a looming civilian crisis. Like always, it will be a huge disincentive for the honest captains who ran a tight ship.
  • The Japanese are headed for big trouble. Reasons - adverse demographics (too many old people, too few young earners), collapsing political structure (the new party is unable to get its act together) and huge domestic debts. So their two-decades-old recession is likely to continue through the third.
  • Sentiments of economies worldwide will remain muted. This will most deeply impact the stock markets, as the conventional wisdom of valuations has already been thrown to the dogs, with the kinds of risks companies have taken.
  • Credit rating agencies have already lost most of their respect, but surprisingly, continue to remain quoted in the media with lot of gravity. How come these idiots totally missed out on the really big crises that came about? What were they doing?
  • India will hopefully remain on a 5% plus growth path. This will generate lots of job opportunities for domestic sector, but quality of manpower will remain a challenge.
  • China is in deep trouble. With the US nowhere near recovery, the Chinese will wonder constantly about the value of the trillion dollar baby (US treasury bonds) they are holding! But since China is actually not a country but more of a private limited company (run by just one shareholder - the Chinese Communist Party) and secured by the PLA, they may ride it out through a judicious mix of guns, sticks and bullets!
You should google Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman to get some real gems on this entire story, and how the US regulators failed the world's expectations of them.

The failure of US model, and its secondary European repercussions, is not a failure of Capitalism itself. It is a failure of the Western Man. His uncontrollable greed has undone him. Mahatma Gandhi was right when he reminded us that there is enough in this world for everyone's need, but not enough for even one person's greed. And so, I remain hopeful that men with reasonable ambition will again build the foundations of this wonderful creation called Capitalism.
~

Friday, May 21, 2010

The problem with today's problems

Centuries of evolution of the democratic systems and millennia of human evolution is proof enough for someone like me to believe that our system has been set for life, and we can expect a certain degree of predictability and safety from the way the world is run.

But all is not quite right. There are major anomalies.

Let me take an example, and start making myself clearer. I was watching television yesterday afternoon, and happened to glance through all business channels - CNBC, Awaz, NDTV Profit and UTV Bloomberg etc. The free fall of the stock markets due to Euro-panic was splashed across the screen, punctuated by the terror-struck faces of the anchors, and the sagacious tones (most of them artificial ones) and heavy baritones of many of the experts, collected from every nook and cranny of this grand nation. Each one of those experts was waxing eloquent about the reasons for the crash, and the road ahead. All of them sounded sullen and morose, sad and despondent, and "wise" at the same time!

Wait a minute. If you are so wise, and if you can analyse this crisis (this new one, the Euro-panic one) so well, you should make lots of money betting on the bearish trend already? Shouldn't you?
(Maybe you can't in Germany due to the ban on short-selling but everywhere else you can)

So it appears that these wise people are wise only in hindsight. And a surprisingly shortly timed hindsight at that. So are they really wise? My answer - NO. They are charlatans, most of them, struggling to look wise on TV, so we can keep watching their stupid analyses presented through the most slick graphics by some of the most attractively painted and dressed women and men in this country.

And something very interesting happened with me today. I started to philosophically analyse what was happening with my mind. My mind, imagine! So who's analysing whom? My mind is analysing itself! I went blank, stopped hearing anything, and looked into the vacuum of the TV that was in front of my eyes, and started seeing and hearing different things. I totally avoided listening to the economic nonsense of European crisis, and went to the basics.

There are obvious truths around us that we simply choose to ignore. We choose to rationalise.

What's this Euro-crisis anyway? Is it any different than the American crisis that started to happen just around 36 months ago?

Fundamentally, it's the same. At the root of both these crisis (and I suspect most such crisis) lie some simple things
  • Greed - more, more, more, more, more...
  • Nonsense - 'more' will not lead to collapse
  • Leverage - i can always pay back later, let me borrow now
  • Irresponsibility - i'm a sovereign, so the crime can be made to look like a veiled virtue


It so turns out that some European governments (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) borrowed so much from markets (international ones) that they are in no position to pay back their debts that fall due. It also turns out that these nations are independent sovereign nations (with their own militaries, elected governments, constitutions and the entire range of paraphernalia that we count as insurance against delinquent behaviour) that have chosen not to control their rapacious greed (in borrowing and then spending the borrowed monies recklessly). Also, it turns out that the Euro currency is so designed that the bad behaviour of these nations will severely dent the currency, and so other 'good' nations must now come in to protect the currency (Read - must now come in to offer loads of monies to these stupid nations to tide over the crisis).

By the way, did you notice the wonderful poetic justice in the acronym derived from the names of these nations? PIGS.

I was wondering - decades and centuries of civilisation's hard-earned wisdom and work, all down the drain so fast? Nobody could stop this from happening?

There are some simple lessons we have to learn from these developments. These are striking, shocking lessons, that make a humble reading.

  1. Experts are mostly cheaters. They often tell you things that are untrue. Market experts, Economists and Governments cheat tremendously. Nassim Taleb (of 'The Black Swan' fame) says that the Nobel prize for Economics is one of the biggest frauds!
  2. Media does not understand the deep, intricate technicalities of any situation. They perhaps don't need to. What they do need are advertisements - desperately - and hence are forced (by the nature of their business) to present things in a "grossly simplified format" to us. This is creating huge problems of its own, as populations are getting accustomed to reading simple analysis of even extremely complex situations! Most such analyses are shorn of the subtleties and nuances that define the problem.
  3. Problems are simply rolled over, never solved. Each government (democratically elected) simply rolls the gargantuan problem (as it can no longer be solved) to the next government! And the next, and the next.
  4. Problems are fairly complex, but can have very simple solutions. Refer to the greed, nonsense, leverage and irresponsibility stuff I wrote above.
  5. Nothing is predictable at all about the world anymore, and problems - when they arise - will be big in nature, and generally beyond the immediate control of the government on the spot at the time.
Are these things the way these things are supposed to be?

NO. We are supposed to have governments and systems that work. We elect them! We pay every conceivable kind of taxes to them! We follow all rules (speaking for myself - I try to).

For what? Such irresponsible behaviour?

Now just apply this entire analysis to the Naxalite problem that India is facing. And you may find that it applies there as well! A fully-grown nation, with a strong democratically elected government, a strong military, a strong media and a hugely strong willpower is seemingly totally meek in front of those who choose to carve out another nation out of its heartlands. Amazing!

Take this entire analysis and apply it to the recent oil spill off the coast of Mexico and US, by some BP owned oil-rig. The fact that even after a month they are unable to bring it under control, despite massive political pressure from the White House to do so, speaks for itself.

So it turns out that the world's problem are getting nastier, and the solutions more troublesome than our faith in technology and modernity would warrant.

So, let me summarise the problem with today's problems
  1. We expect very quick solutions to even complex problems, due to over-simplification of communication in media channels
  2. We trust our experts too much, while most of them are relying on data from a past that no longer exists! (in most industries)
  3. We expect positive solutions always - while many solutions require a compromise
  4. We are magnifying our local problems into problems of a gargantuan scale due to internationalisation of everything
Interesting times we live in!
~

Monday, May 3, 2010

Power Tips for your first job

A huge change arrives the moment a student leaves college, and joins an organisation for a job. All templates that worked so wonderfully well till date, no longer exist. The comfort zone evaporates. Routines change.

I am not talking about internships, but full time jobs.

It takes conscious effort to settle in your new life. The corporate or business life. It won't happen automatically. And unless you are mentally prepared for it, the pain may be big.

To land yourself correctly in your first few weeks, months and years, here are my POWER TIPS.
  1. GET MENTALLY PREPARED - The time spent at college is usually memorable. We all tend to remember, recall and fondly share moments spent together at our college, all through our lives. As we move from college into the corporate world (or the world of business) it entails a huge shift in our lives. It's like taking birth all over again. Safely ensconced in our mother's womb, we could play brave, knowing well someone is there to protect us always. But once we are born, and the warmth of the cocoon no longer exists, we must first learn to cry. A similar experience awaits all who graduate from an institution/college and move into the corporate world. It's like moving out of the protected, warm and life-giving cocoon into the open world of uncertainties and turbulence. Surprisingly, a large percentage of graduating students (graduating from a UG college or a PG college or from any other institution) do not at all think about the life that's coming up. They assume it will be a linear extension of their present condition. It will not. It will be a step change. Everything that defined your comfort zone today, will evaporate overnight. So, start thinking about it. Prepare your mind to accept the new reality. Start imagining victories in the new life. Think of the happiness that will come to you as you move from "being a student" to "being a professional". And remember, if you behave like a joker, the world will treat you like a joker! So, start preapring mentally for a serious and successful stint ahead.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Talk, Walk, Rock

Who doesn't like being successful! We all dream of it, at each stage of our lives. Success, with all its accompanying accoutrements. Aha, the very thought!

So let me share this most important secret I have discovered - and rediscovered over the years - about successful people - "The biggest asset of successful people is excellent communication skills."

If I can generalise this rule of success, it will read - "Talk, Walk and Rock!" This means that you talk well (i.e. communicate effectively), walk the talk (carry out the promises made), and well, Rock!

In this post, let me focus on the first part of this rule. The "Talk" part. What are we referring to? Well, the very basic human need to connect with adequate warmth, and to understand each other well, and effect meaningful action. That's "communication" for you. So can we define communication? Let me try.
  • It is the art of connecting with other human beings (or animals*).
  • It is the art and science of getting your point across in the least obtrusive and most likeable manner.
  • It is the fundamental human action of getting things done through association, cooperation and team-work.
  • It is an intentional activity designed to have a certain output.
* The reason I wrote "animals" in the first definition was because I have seen people communicate amazingly well with certain animals. For more insights, read the book "What the dog saw" by Malcolm Gladwell.

And here is a typical management textbook definition of communication (and hence a useless one !) -
"Communication is an exercise in connection, defined by a speaker and a receiver (one or more), and the presence of a medium, through which the intended message crosses over, and is received and retransmitted over a period of time, with a certain intended objective in mind, and a certain output desired at the end of the expense of energy involved."

Managers, leaders, entrepreneurs and anyone else who has achieved any measurable success in their lives have a solid bank balance of this amazing skill. They really connect well. And as I have progressed through my 17 years journey of entrepreneurship, I have become very good at listening to good speakers carefully. I observe very patiently and try to see what truly defines excellence in communication.

My learnings are
  1. Excellent communicators are very aggressive listeners. They listen patiently to what others have to say. And while doing that, they generate interest in the mind of the person who is speaking. Example - I remember a student who was rather smart but would never let me complete my point and would be ready with his reply to any point I would make. It was horribly irritating. I never liked it. Slowly, I stopped making points to him. In his corporate career, he's likely to pay a very big price for his eternal impatience.
  2. Excellent communicators use their entire body to communicate. Words, physical looks, clothes they wear, perfumes they use, body language that excellent communicators use - it all adds up to a powerful package. There is no point in knowing good English, for example, when you dress up shabbily, are unshaven and haggard in looks, have a sad and despondent face to display in meetings and wear shoes that are not polished. Who'll believe you? No one. At least, not me! I am not recommending expensive clothing or footwear. I am advocating clean stuff. It may be inexpensive, no problems at all. Example - We had this very young and physically good looking marketing executive who would never shave regularly, and would wear clothes that were never clean or well-ironed (even informal clothes should be well-ironed and clean). While these may be an asset in some situations, generally it's not a good idea. It affected his chances with us.
  3. Communication is a package deal. You cannot communicate in isolation. All elements mentioned above are essential. They mutually reinforce each other. So you should start cautiously working from now (if you are a young one reading this) on this very crucial aspect of your professional and personal life. It will not happen automatically. You have to get reasonably good set of clothes, develop a habit of personal grooming (even if you are casually dressed) and so on. Sadly, many young people think this is a joke. They keep paying a price, without even realising it. Example - For an important students group, we had a Head (a student himself) who would simply degenerate when not supervised. Would get up late, come to work without taking a bath or shaving well, would stink literally, and would make it visibly clear as to what his lasting values were (since many years). This poor fellow is likely to get kicked big time by his employers again and again, till he realises what mistake needs rectification. At the same time, I have come across individuals who pick up the smallest of cues offered to them, and then make behavioural adjustments accordingly.
  4. Emotional intelligence is very crucial. Depending on the circumstances and people you are interacting with, your entire package must get redefined. Example - You cannot interact with senior citizens in the same manner in which you will interact with young professionals. Your tone of voice, your pitch, your smile - everything will have to be moulded to suit the specific instant(s). How many even understand this? Their monotonous approach remains as it is throughout. Painful. Another example - When we take classes, depending on the strength of the class, and also the overall calibre of the students in the class, we have to completely remould ourselves to offer stuff that's challenging to that particular set of students. You cannot remain the same always. Your offering must evolve. Your examples must evolve too.
  5. Respect the other person's perspective. While listening carefully, do not just pretend. Actually try to understand what the other person is trying to say. If you do not respect the other person's perspective, it is unlikely that you will be able to use your communication skills to the fullest extent. You may disagree with the other person, but you have to give a patient hearing and then put forward your perspective clearly. Example - You have certain expectations from your boss. But you may not know the full picture. So before you arrive at the final conclusion, you better take into account your entire 360 degrees facts-check carefully.
  6. Use passion to the fullest. Very rarely have I seen a successful person who communicated without passion. Do this self-check - do you have passion inside you about anything? Anything? Is it natural and genuine, or simply affected? Passion must ooze from your work, your actions, your decisions and your overall persona. It truly adds up. Example - I distinctly remember a student of mine, who would always "artificially" pump up his volume and facial happiness while meeting me, to impress upon me his positive spirit. But it was so obviously a fake! Pathetic. At the same time, I have come across genuinely passionate people - they are genuine simply because they are seriously doing the stuff they are talking about.
  7. Be very honest in your communication offerings. I observe people's postings in Social Media (OSN) carefully. People keep posting their views and ideas on Facebook and Orkut. Some actually think that while they are smart, the world reading their posting is foolish. Since I know some of these 'friends' personally, I am always amazed to see the H-U-G-E gap in what they make themselves out to be in their postings, and what they actually are in real life. You can fool those who don't know you, but those who do know you, will brand you forever. I don't think I wish to declare what branding I am referring to here. Warning - Young people, be warned! Recruiters and employers today have access to everything you post online. Anyone's page can be accessed from anywhere, anytime. Your postings will ultimately get assessed by a recruiter or employer some day. God help you when that happens. Just another day, I read the statement "F*** Off" in one of my student's Facebook wall posting. What image you think that creates? The poor soul is so blissfully unaware of the fact that other than his frivolous set of friends, others may see this too. So I realise that as much as social media is a boon for many, for the idiots, it'll be their undoing, their nemesis, their road to hell. Their entire glittering record of stupidities is writ large over their Facebook Walls, proudly displayed with sickening language, wrong grammar, hard to decipher punctuations (ex. ????????????, or !!!!!!!!!!!????, or .....,,,,,....!!!?????, etc.) and impossible attitude. Tut, tut.
I hope these points help you understand the road to effective communication better. Recently, we launched the STRINGS club (PT universe's Activities Club) and organised a series of talks by startup entrepreneurs. One thing common to all of them - AMAZING sense of passion, commitment and excellent communication skills! My learnings were validated.

(Pictures of all these are displayed in this blog-posting.)

There really is no other way. It's a tough road out there, and the sensible will read the signals and transform their attitude, approach and skills to make success come all that close(r). Else, the other option is equally clear! Remember, if you are getting repeatedly rejected in job interviews, or college-admission interviews, the problem lies "inside you" and not outside. So, work on removing the roadblocks that are stopping you everytime instead of cursing the world. By choosing do indulge in the latter, you are choosing to remain stuck in a groove as the world moves on. Don't do that!

Wishing my readers all success in their lives! Talk, Walk, Rock.
~

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Learning to love Adversity and Scarcity

Popular belief dictates that availability of resources may be the biggest boon for an individual or an organisation. It is assumed that if all resources that are needed to be successful in a given situation are indeed made available, people will fare far better than otherwise. Ditto for organisations.

Far from it!

Experience suggests that the reverse may be more true. Lack of resources may be the biggest motivator for an individual to perform better. In other words, people and organisations may use "Adversity" and "Scarcity" as great tools for self-motivation and outstanding performance.

“Adversity and Scarcity are like a strong wind. They tear away from us all but the things that cannot be torn, so that we see ourselves as we really are.”

Simple scenarios

Example 1. Suppose you are leading a project management team. The team leader requests for certain resources to be made available. Out of sheer generosity and lack of experience, you make everything available. What happens next? The team is motivated to perform better? Or they take things lightly?

Example 2. A company floats its public issue. The issue is over-subscribed several times. What sentiment is that likely to ignite in the promoters' minds? "We need to do better", or "We made it! We are the best! Relax!"

Example 3. A student takes up a summer project. The company makes available all amenities and resources for the project to be done, with clear cut guidelines and parameters. What do you think? The student learns a lot in the course of this training, or he gains an impression of learning?

Example 4. You really love your young child. She demands lots of toys, drawing tools and books. You dote over her and get her everything, all the time. What do you think this does to her? She appreciates resources, or considers them as "always available" hence worthless?

While working with many people across India, and in multiple projects, I have learnt that the best performances were exhibited (in general, by most people) when the circumstances were not supportive. And not when they were.

History bears witness to the fact that outstanding performances have arisen only when resources were never available. Why is this so? Why do humans perform better when things go bad? Well, those have an "achiever's mindset", they can't see their actions turning to dust, and put in even more directed effort to bring results from their efforts.

I recall a project started by a huge consortium of telecom companies led by Motorola way back in 1996-97 to launch consumer satellite-telephony. It was titled "The Iridium project" and was launched with outstanding fanfare, with advt punchlines claiming "Geography is History". The project had IMMENSE resources allotted to it, with all major brands supporting. The project failed spectacularly in just 2 years. Analysis revealed that the overconfident project managers failed in the most basic planning - consumer comfort with pricing. I suspect that this happened due to a false sense of "resource security" that the always-flowing taps ensured.


Tips for sensible resource management
  1. Be conservative in approach. Never allow enthusiasm to succeed cloud your judgment while allocating resources for a project.
  2. Be aggressive in expecting results. Let everyone in the team know what you expect. Be clear. If possible, write down what you expect.
  3. Review performance regularly. See if you have overshot resource allocation.
  4. Remain market-sentiment agnostic. We have learnt that markets have a bad habit of motivating our decisions - we tend to overdo or underdo depending on a bullish or a bearish market sentiment.
  5. Be ready to be unpopular. It is rare that your team will appreciate your approach especially when it comes to resources allotted. If you wish to remain popular always, your organisation will suffer.
  6. Beware a sense of "resource-security". It is very dangerous. Remember the Iridium example.
Talking about "resource-security" - I also recall the early years of India's economic liberalisaion (1991-1995). There was a mad rush of MNC brands into the country, with a false sense of prosperity, security and success. It was assumed that most of them will make it big, as India's strong middle-class will rush to buy their posh products and services. None of that happened, and most had to either leave India, or completely reinvent themselves. It took McDonalds more than 10 years to get its Indian formula somewhat right. They never had a paucity of resources!

While appointing someone senior on an important position, it is important to judge her/his expectations. If he asks for very clear guidelines for work, then there is likely to be a mismatch. On senior positions, things remain unclear always - as market dynamics change daily, and frequent adjustment in operating procedures need to be made while keeping an overall consistency in policy objectives. So someone who expects too much support in day to day work may be a bad choice. I am always surprised on how little this point is understood even by many so-called senior people! A caveat though - it is the organisations's responsibility to ensure that the philosophy of work is explained to the candidate carefully, so as to avoid a cultural mismatch.

Thus, "Adversity" and "Scarcity" are great tools for self-motivation and outstanding performance.
~

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Naxalistan rising

Taken lightly and as an issue emanating from and restricted to the forests and hills where those underprivileged adivasis (tribals) have lived for generations, the Naxalite problem in India has assumed menacing proportions. In my view, if India is facing one existential problem today, it is this. Unfortunately, those in power simply choose to ignore, dilly-dally and play-safe. They have done so for more than 3 decades, and the cancer is now in full bloom for rest of the world to see, and comment on.

In normal times, I would not have imagined writing a title like the one I have, for this post. I love my nation, and I love its democratic traditions. But like a nightmare from the Marxist past (19th century), Naxalism has emerged on the horizon as the ultimate Black Swan - a phenomenon of momentous proportions for which no one seems ready. And Black Swans enjoy a dangerous reputation - Nassim Taleb proved it beyond doubt that they can upset the best of calculations, and the most robust-looking of systems. In short, it's really bad news for India. It'll be worse because this is a 'known' Black Swan.

(One request : please do read this blogpost fully before reaching any conclusion about my views. Since it's a complex issue, it's easy to get misunderstood, hence the request!)

As I analyse the Naxal menace from a Project Management perspective (thinking I am the supreme decision maker in India, and I am mandated with stamping out this Naxalite menace), I realise it's quite a complex situation. It's cancerous, actually. Rooting out the secondary lesions will be of little use, as long as the parent tumour stays healthy and keeps up its prolific activity. And when I think of attacking the parent tumour, it seems my hands are tied with convention - democratic traditions - that pull me back, slow me down, and ultimately, may prove my undoing.

The potential ramifications for India are outlined in this article. It's not pleasant reading, so be prepared!

Let's break the huge problem into small pieces, and try to analyse it.

What do the Naxalites want?
An overthrow of the parliamentary democracy system in India. They want a (Mao style) Communist ruling order (for at least the part of modern day India which they control). Note that they do not want money, or government jobs, or reservations, or Coca Cola, or Malls, or films. They want a new nation as per their rules.

How did they come into being? What started it all?
Societal injustice led to the first armed uprising in some small village in West Bengal (called Naxalbari) several decades ago. They wanted instant justice through violence (guns), as they lost faith in democratic institutions like the Parliament (legislatures), the Courts and the Police/Media/Administration. They claim these institutions only serve the purpose of creating an illusion of progress for the common man, nothing more.

Are they mercenaries or terrorists?
Frighteningly, they are none. They are, so far, ideologically strong forces who are chasing an overriding goal. Overthrow of democracy in India. This makes them difficult to beat. You can buy out a mercenary, and black-label a terrorist, but it's very difficult with ideologues. History has proven that you may kill the leaders of ideologically driven movements, but that only serves to strengthen the ideology even further. Want examples? Recall Che Guevara (Cuba, Bolivia..)


What's the Indian government doing?
Practically, as of now, nothing seriously consequential. They are training and preparing the para-military, intelligence and police forces for head-on collisions with the Naxalites, but there are little signs of deep success that can be celebrated. And for every success, there is a crushing defeat that follows almost immediately. Despite interesting and partially successful government interventions like the Salwa Judum, there are bigger threats that Naxalites keep posing.

Who's responsible for fighting these Naxalites?
Both the Centre as well as the States are responsible. And that's a big problem. Coordination issues bog everything down, at times. I must add that there are many patriotic and nationalistic politicians (and of course police officers) who truly want to solve this problem. Some of them have gotten assassinated, some face life-threats. I was surprised to see the instant (negative though muted) reaction of the Chief of Indian Air Force in the media the next day after the Home Minister suggested we may use Air Force to counter the Naxals. He suggested things ("..they are Indian citizens after all..", "..we are geared for total destruction not surgical strikes inside forests.." etc.) that may have inadvertently encouraged the Naxals!

Is our democracy slowing us down?
It's a fact that the sympathisers of Naxalism use the very instruments of democracy to subvert it!! They will file cases against police officers in courts of law, alleging human rights violations. And in many cases, succeed in slowing down the operations, and of course, in demoralising the forces.

What are the actual problems with stamping out Naxalism?
Well, there are many. To summarise -
  1. They are fighting a battle of ideology
  2. Democracy seriously cripples large-scale internal security operations
  3. Indian military's involvement seems remote
  4. Porous local politics will incessantly aid the cause of Naxalites
  5. Democratic institutions (media, judiciary..) will harm the cause of long-term democracy itself!
  6. Sheer scale of Naxalism's spread in India (200+ affected districts so far)
  7. Genuine problems of citizenry going un-addressed for decades
Are there historical precedents of this problem?
Very interestingly, the Naxal problem - in my personal opinion - in India resembles the 16th century story of the great Maratha king - Shivaji Maharaj. The big difference, though, lies in the fact that while Shivaji's battle was noble - he fought the foreign invaders (Mughals and Nizams) who were well-settled in India (both North and South) to establish a "Swarajya" based on clear-cut honest rules, the Naxals have subverted such a system already existing (the Indian democracy). Shivaji Maharaj had NO choice but to wage a war against the Mughals and the Nizams. The Naxals have a choice. They can participate in the Indian democratic system, which they choose not to. There's another interesting side to this story. Both are using strong guerilla tactics in fighting their enemies. This is what made Shivaji invincible in most cases. This is precisely what's slowing the Indian state's total rooting out of the Naxal menace. Just like Shivaji would have been destroyed in a face-to-face battle with the Mughals, the Naxalites will be eradicated in an open battle with Indian forces. They have not fought a single battle that's pre-declared. In summary, while Shivaji was a positive and successful force for India's resurgence, the Naxals represent the opposite.

Are the Naxalite forces really very strong? Very large?
The Indian state is TOO strong and TOO large for the Naxalites to overrun. It will be foolish to even being assuming that one day in the near future they will declare independence (the very thought!!). Our forces can crush them anytime they want to - but the constraints of a guerilla warfare, sympathy for them as they are our own citizens after all, and the democratic slowness of the system is holding the Indian state back.

Is India's internal stability important for the rest of the world?
Absolutely! If India falters, and Naxalism shaves off a few percentage points from our national GDP over the next few years, the world economy will suffer. We must not overlook the fact that Europe and the US are looking towards China and India as the lead anchors in their roles as rejuvenators of the sinking world economy.

What's a good scenario mapping?
There are three possible scenarios we are headed for.

Scenario 1. The central government acts hard and fast, starting 2010. Army is called in to support (not just train) the paramilitary forces. The Naxals strike back with full force, but as the army is involved, they gradually start losing out strategic battles. Despite loud shrieks from the pseudo-human rights activists and several brainless (and unpatriotic) media channels, the government simply presses ahead with cleaning the cancer. The Indian military uses lessons learnt by Sri Lankan forces in their war against the LTTE, to the maximum. In all this, Naxalites' key leaders are killed, arrested or go underground. By 2015, they are a pale shadow of their earlier self. India returns to business as usual. The government brings in massive social rebuilding programs, and spends billions on actual grassroot projects. The government gets sensitised, and ensures Naxalism turns into just a bad dream that got over.

Scenario 2. The Central government tries to rally everyone around the single point agenda of building a two-point solution to the Naxal issue. (a) The Hard solution - para-military action, and (b) the Soft solution - large scale economic packages for tribals and poor in the Naxalite affected districts (200+ in number at present). The media channels keep shrieking about possible human rights violations, and Naxalite sympathisers (many of India's unpatriotic pseudo-intellectuals) keep waxing eloquently on prominent channels. As the intellectuals slog it out in the airconditioned media studios, and then head out to party, the Naxalites keep killing security forces without a hint of compunction! On ground, regular battles (big and small) keep getting fought between the forces, and Naxalites. Nothing major seems to happen, other than status quo. But in reality, the Naxalites strengthen their hold on the interior regions strongly. With every passing day, they spread their cancer in an incurable format. The mission is clear - declaring independence from the Republic of India, and creation of an independent state of Naxalistan. In October 2018, they declare the official launch of the ragtag state of Naxalistan. Many media channels are invited to cover the 'glorious' event. The world is stunned, so is the rest of India. Under strong international pressure (mainly from the now totally bankrupt USA and a strong China), the Republic of India decides not to fight back - the human cost would be too much. After all, the Naxalites are now spread intelligently in more than 500 million of India's ordinary population across 300 districts! Two states (widely different from each other) start uneasily co-existing in the Indian sub-continent.

Scenario 3. Nothing substantial happens till 2018. Central and State governments keep passing the buck. Top political leaders of ruling parties in Delhi avoid taking the bold decisions which are desperately needed (they fear their personal safety, and losing major political ground to opportunisitic opposition parties). Many state level leaders strike individually profitable deals with Naxalites helping them win local elections, and promising only symbolic paramilitary action in return. The virus spreads dangerously till the Central government realises India is losing out on large chunks of foreign investment due to consistent bad press internationally. Suddenly, in October 2018, the Naxalites declare an independent state "Naxalistan" comprising areas from more than 300 Indian districts, and several nations in the world are approached to grant it recognition. India stands divided - The democratic India, and the Naxalistan. Fortunately, Delhi is still controlled by a patriotic government, not willing to see the dreams of founder-fathers tattered to pieces. The Indian military is still apolitical and willing to obey the civilian establishment's orders. Democratic Republic of India calls in the Army finally. It's war. Large scale massacre of Naxalites (and citizens) takes place over the next decade. Many leading politicians lose their lives in the battery of assassinations that Naxalites carry out throughout the country in retaliation. It's April 2025 when the Indian Army finally declares victory over Naxalistan. Remember Sri Lanka's war against LTTE? It took several decades in that small island. In India, it's a problem at least 10 times bigger in magnitude, to put it crudely. By then, deep damage to the fabric of the sub-continent has already happened. India's image as the haven of democratic tradition and peace is dented severely.


I have speculated on the future, based on the past and present. As a nationalistic Indian, I pray to God that none of these scenarios turns out to be true, and that the Government(s) and Naxalites can sit across the table, talk with a cool head, and arrive at a mutually agreeable solution. I hope that our governments can offer them peace, resources and progress, and that the Naxalites (especially their leaders) accept those. I hope and pray that more lives are not lost. I pray that in this land of Gandhi, Bose and Patel, we maintain what we got with so much struggle - an undiluted sovereign republic of India. I pray.
~

all images, maps etc. are only indicative in nature, and are taken from the internet sources. All future dates mentioned are the author's personal imagination using present facts.