Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Politics. Show all posts

Monday, January 18, 2016

If Indians suddenly ceased to exist, what would happen?

So someone asked in jest - If Indians suddenly ceased to exist, what would happen? I thought about it, and a scenario like this emerged :


When Indians suddenly cease to exist (today, not in some distant past -as that will make my answer too complex), India too will.
Shri Xi likes it
Then, on a sunny but chilly Beijing morning -General to Xi - Boss, hey boss ...
Xi - Hmm ... (without moving the eyes)
General - Indians are all gone ... they're gone ... our satellites show a dark subcontinent ...
Xi - Move in by tomorrow morning. (Xi is suddenly charged up after a really bad spell of artificially managing the stock markets and Banks, and pretending Constitutionalism while arresting dissidents by the thousands)

Then -
  1. Pakistanis are shattered, and lose their reason for existence! With India not around anymore, whom to blame, whom to benchmark their history with, whom to refer to for all their ills and miseries. They will simply lose their sense of being, and will move into the Indian mainland, and try to claim and rename it, and discover that the Chinese are already here, have renamed it, and give a penny's worth to the Pakistanis now.
  2. Pakistan comes to an end - With the Indian mainland now completely under the Chinese control, they will simply rampage through entire Pakistan and turn it into just another of their territories. They don't need the Generals any more to checkmate India in the high Himalayas. Bye bye both Sharifs. The Pak nukes, army assets and naval ports are simply appropriated by the People's Liberation Army. All Kashmiri separatist groups headquartered in Pakistan are sent to forced labour camps in Tibet and Xinjiang.
  3. Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh will voluntarily offer themselves as candidates for Chinese territories!
  4. Microsoft and Google get a huge headache - With their best and brightest vapourized suddenly, they'll be at a loss. They'll try to ramp up and realise that without a steady supply of talent that they'd taken almost for granted, they're literally smothered! Dumping Alphabet, the founders move back to the dirty job of running advertisements and android. The driverless cars and the internet balloons have to wait that extra decade.
  5. Facebook is blank - With India gone, a whole market it had based its future growth upon, the valuation drops drastically overnight. Mark rethinks the 99% giving pledge. Stares at the dashboard showing a jaundiced FB. And recalls China is forbidden fruit anyway.
  6. NASA reschedules its entire decade's worth of planning - It is staring at empty seats across departments, and too scared to fill them with the next available alternative!
  7. Sri Lanka realises China was not that good a choice to counter India with, through the past decades. They wait and watch. And recall with fond memories the civil nuclear deal they had just done with Indian friends.
  8. Indian Ocean is renamed The Ocean of Confucius or The People's Liberation Ocean or The Great Chinese Dream. The British and US forces on Diego Garcia ask for a long leave of absence.
  9. The aboriginal tribes on Andaman-Nicobar don't give a poisoned arrow's worth to all this. They continue their blissful existence as ever, hugging each other for hours on end.
  10. The British curse themselves for voting in the Labour Party in 1945 - Churchill would never have given up the British Indian Empire, and now was the time to encash their 200 years of brutality. Land worth 80% of today's entire European Union - all lost to the Communists.
  11. Saudi Arabia ramps up its defence budget - With one of the topmost oil importers suddenly gone, the world oil market is devastated, perhaps reaching $ 9 per barrel. Rebels, ISIS and Shias would gun for blood. Time to buy more missiles, tanks, and perhaps, a nuke or two!
  12. Food worldwide suddenly goes bland - with Indian spices no longer around, the world begs for more from the new government, that is yet to make up its mind on renaming the spices before exporting.
  13. The GREs, GMATs, and Foreign Universities of the world lose their profit streams suddenly, with the teeming millions no longer around to compete. Many American universities go blank, and bankrupt altogether.
  14. The Swiss and the Cayman guys are the happiest lot - With the hundreds of billions no longer claimed by anyone, they stop working altogether and throw an year-long party to celebrate. Reclaim their moral high-ground again.
But come to think of it - the probability of exactly the reverse happening is higher - Indians would perhaps be the last ones remaining on the planet, given our increasing appetite for numbers!

No offence meant, anyone! Hope you enjoyed.
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Monday, December 14, 2015

Can India witness a real Coup?

N T Ramarao N Chandrababu Naidu Andhra Pradesh PDP PT education blog Sandeep Manudhane SM sir Indore
Palace Coup in A.P.
Many political coups have been successfully, and often peacefully, organised in India. A good example of a regional political coup is when in August 1995, N T Ramarao was removed as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and as the president of the TDP, by his son-in-law N Chandrababu Naidu who led an internal coup against his own father-in-law! If we examine the possibility of a comprehensive violent coup at the national level like the ones regularly seen in many African nations, yes, then we have not witnessed one so far.
I would love to give a detailed treatment. Here's my take -
A. Coup versus Revolution versus Rebellion
George Washington 1776 American Revolution USA PT education blog Sandeep Manudhane SM sir
Washinton, ahoy!
  • First, let us understand the difference between these. A coup (more commonlyCoup d'etat) is a quick and decisive (and generally illegal) overthrow of an existing government by a small group that is in the position to do so, with or without the armed forces or military or the leading militia. Example - what is seen across African nations regularly
  • Then comes the term revolution, which is used to denote a large-scale uprising of people from all walks of life, with the common aim to overthrow the existing regime, and replace it with a more acceptable one. Example - the American revolution 1776 that ousted the British Raj from what was to be the USA or the 1857 Indian Revolution against the British Raj
  • A rebellion happens when there's a lot of opposition (armed, violent or otherwise) to the central authority. India has witnessed many of these post 1947, like the Naxalite rebellion (post 1979 till date), the Khalistan Andolan (rebellion) in 1980s etc.
B. What are the reasons for such uprisings?
Egypt Hosni Mubarak Barack Obama
Egypt's Hosni Mubarak
  • Seemingly unjustified concentration of power in one family or person - Just recall what happened in the Arab Spring from Dec 2010 onwards. Most of the Arab regimes faced tremendous revolt from civilian populations as for decades, an ossified political structure had offered little devolution of power across the society. Examples - Egypt (Hosni Mubarak). An old example - the American Revolution that happened in the 13 original north American British colonies (against UK - on the primary issue of no taxation without representation - considered gross injustice by the Monarch i.e. the Parliament)

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Politicians v/s Bureaucrats - a comparison

Students often ask me who is more powerful - a politician, or a bureaucrat? The answer can be quite nuanced, and detailed.


sandeep manudhane, sm sir, PT education, ias
Compare!
First, the basic definitions. 

A politician is one who represents her/his people, and makes the primary decisions on matters that decide the mode of assets/resources distribution & sharing. In rare instances, she/he may decide on life-and-death matters too (warfare/ terror/ abortion/ religion/ health etc.)

A bureaucrat is one who brings broad or narrow sectoral expertise and administrative acumen to help the politician achieve the goals the policies have set. She/he is not required to earn public approval, and is more permanent in that sense. For the purpose of this answer, I'll include all types of civil services under this definition. Also, my answer is not restricted to just India.

Let's begin listing the powers and limitations -

BR Ambedkar Indian Constitution PT education Sandeep Manudhane SM sir PT Indore
Ambedkar, the lawmaker
  1. Laws: A politician makes the laws. A bureaucrat implements them through drafting of micro rules, regulations and by running the implementation machinery. Together, they become the sarkaar.
  2. Sanction: A politician earns public approval through elections. A bureaucrat earns his position through a process of examination.
  3. Harmony: Due to point 2, a politician can harmonise mutually antagonistic perceptions of various communities. A bureaucrat will never be in a position to do so.
  4. Visible Power: A politician can muster up public support to protest government actions, or bureaucratic apathy, inaction or opposition. A bureaucrat can seek legal/systemic redressal only, and not hit the street to voice grievances.
  5. Entrepreneurship: A politician can run a business empire in parallel, either clandestinely or openly (as long as he/she can prove an arm's length connection). A bureaucrat automatically earns disqualification if he turns a commercial entrepreneur.
  6. Stability: A politician rides a lion all through his career. A bureaucrat walks the concrete road of system and processes.
    Margaret Thatcher Indira Gandhi brightsparks blog Sandeep Manudhane PT education SM sir Indore
    Iron Ladies - Margaret & Indira
  7. Scope: A politician can transform the entire selection process of bureaucrats. A bureaucrat can significantly delay or sabotage the politician's desire to do so, by apathy, inaction or complexification.
  8. Limits: Due to society's general inertia, a cunning and immoral politician almost exclusively reserves the right to indulge in abusive verbiage, harassment and criminal activities. A bureaucrat will have to be extremely stealthy about it!
  9. Grandiloquence: A politician can massage his ego regularly by making grandiose statements like - "an investment of Rs 1 lac crore will soon be made to achieve world class output in X sector". A bureaucrat cannot say anything like this ever unless formally sanctioned by the government after policy making.
  10. Stamina: A politician runs the gauntlet frequently, and has to face abusive crowds, heat and dust of the land, and rough and tumble of political conspiracies. It requires the skin of a pachyderm to endure and succeed. A bureaucrat can stay aloof, dedicated, quiet and still achieve a lot.
  11. One up: A politician can transfer a bureaucrat. A bureaucrat can arrest / prosecute a politician.
  12. Leeway: A politician can make loose interpretations of the law. A bureaucrat can make subjective interpretations of the politician's directives.
  13. Money: A politician can make a lot of money, without being perceived as being dishonest. An honest bureaucrat cannot.
    Pandit Nehru Congress image for Bright Sparks blog of Sandeep Manudhane sir
    Pandit Nehru
  14. Transformation: A single politician can transform a nation completely. Examples - Pt. Nehru (India), Deng Xiaoping (PRC), Mikhail Gorbachev (USSR), General Zia ul Haq (Pakistan), Nelson Mandela (S Africa), Abraham Lincoln (USA). A single bureaucrat just cannot. The reverse is equally true - a single evil politician with determination can totally destroy his people, and entire bureaucracy may be unable to do anything about it.
  15. Enablers: A politician can create an enabling environment for bureaucrats to deliver. Example - PM Shri Narendra Modi. A determined bureaucrat can transform a single system to enable long term political stability. Example - Ex Chief Election Commissioner Shri T N Seshan (IAS) who radically improved Indian electoral processes.
  16. Intersection: A politician can, in certain situations, act like a true bureaucrat. Example - the Constituent Assembly that drafted the nitty-gri
    tty of the elaborate Indian constitution. A bureaucrat can, in certain situations, control the raging fires of separatism. Example - IPS officer J F Ribiero in Punjab during the insurgency.
  17. Crossing over: A politician cannot usually crossover to become a bureaucrat. Many bureaucrats become politicians. Examples - Ajit Jogi (ex IAS), Arvind Kejriwal (ex IRS), Kiran Bedi (ex IPS).
    Arvind Kejriwal Kiran Bedi image for Bright Sparks blog of Sandeep Manudhane
    Arvind Kejriwal (IRS), Kiran Bedi (IPS) 
  18. Losing their sleep: A politician loses sleep when public support wanes. A bureaucrat may lose sleep when political support wanes!
  19. Transparency: A politician can subject everyone else, except himself, to public scrutiny. A bureaucrat can do nothing about it. Example - the RTI Act in India, which presently exempts political parties from scrutiny
  20. Peace of mind: Whomsoever you may be, this surely has to be earned!

Hope this helped!


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